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For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $1.85 billion. The metric indicates a gain of 6.8% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Factors Likely to Shape MAT's Quarterly Results
Mattel’s third-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from continued momentum in its Vehicles and Challenger categories, supported by strong consumer demand, product innovation and an expanding portfolio of owned and licensed intellectual properties (IP). The company's brand-centric strategy, focused on leveraging established franchises across toys, entertainment and digital platforms, is expected to have supported sales growth in the quarter under review.
Hot Wheels is expected to have remained a key growth driver, supported by sustained demand from children and adult collectors. Management highlighted the brand's continued market-share gains and expanding appeal beyond traditional die-cast vehicles. Strong demand for collectible products, coupled with the growing presence of Hot Wheels in building sets through Mattel Brick Shop, is likely to have supported the Vehicles category and broader portfolio growth in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vehicles gross billings is pegged at $675 million, indicating a 7.8% increase year over year.
The Action Figures and Building Sets categories are also expected to have contributed to third-quarter revenues. Mattel's expanding entertainment-linked product portfolio, supported by Disney and Pixar's Toy Story 5, Masters of the Universe, WWE and its new DC partnership, is likely to have aided demand. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for gross billings for Action Figures, Building Sets, Games, and Other is pegged at $519 million, indicating an increase from $404 million reported in the prior-year quarter. The company's digital gaming business is likely to have supported third-quarter growth, benefiting from the full acquisition and consolidation of Mattel163. The business strengthens Mattel's presence in mobile gaming and extends the reach of popular franchises, particularly UNO.
Improving retailer ordering patterns and favorable consumer demand trends are likely to have aided Mattel's performance. Management indicated that U.S. retailer ordering patterns had largely stabilized following earlier disruptions, while point-of-sale trends remained positive entering the third quarter. The return to normal timing for fall retail resets in August, coupled with lower retailer inventories, is expected to have supported replenishment activity and shipments. Continued momentum across international markets, particularly Europe, the Middle East and Africa and Asia Pacific, is also likely to have supported the company's top line.
On the margin front, contributions from Mattel163, tariff-mitigation measures and savings under the Optimizing for Profitable Growth program are expected to have supported third-quarter profitability. Management remains on track to achieve cumulative savings of $225 million by the end of 2026 and anticipates sequential gross margin improvement in the second half. The company continues to target an adjusted gross margin of approximately 50% for the full year. However, elevated tariff costs, input inflation, higher royalties and unfavorable foreign exchange movements may have partly offset these benefits. Increased advertising and selling, general and administrative expenses, digital expansion, alongside higher interest expenses and lower interest income, are also likely to have pressured earnings.
What Our Model Unveils About MAT
Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mattel this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. That is not the case here.
Earnings ESP for MAT: Mattel has an Earnings ESP of -10.16%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Mattel’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
For the to-be-reported quarter, FOX is expected to register a 28.1% increase in earnings. FOX reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 35.9%.
American Public Education, Inc. (APEI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.56% and a Zacks Rank of 2.
APEI’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decrease 13.3%. American Public Education reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 150.9%.
Planet Fitness, Inc. (PLNT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.53% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
PLNT’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to remain flat. Planet Fitness reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 9.3%.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Mattel to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Mattel, Inc. (MAT - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 5, after the closing bell.
MAT’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters and missed thrice, with an average miss of 22.9%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of MAT
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 94 cents, up 5.6% year over year.
Mattel, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Mattel, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Mattel, Inc. Quote
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $1.85 billion. The metric indicates a gain of 6.8% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Factors Likely to Shape MAT's Quarterly Results
Mattel’s third-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from continued momentum in its Vehicles and Challenger categories, supported by strong consumer demand, product innovation and an expanding portfolio of owned and licensed intellectual properties (IP). The company's brand-centric strategy, focused on leveraging established franchises across toys, entertainment and digital platforms, is expected to have supported sales growth in the quarter under review.
Hot Wheels is expected to have remained a key growth driver, supported by sustained demand from children and adult collectors. Management highlighted the brand's continued market-share gains and expanding appeal beyond traditional die-cast vehicles. Strong demand for collectible products, coupled with the growing presence of Hot Wheels in building sets through Mattel Brick Shop, is likely to have supported the Vehicles category and broader portfolio growth in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vehicles gross billings is pegged at $675 million, indicating a 7.8% increase year over year.
The Action Figures and Building Sets categories are also expected to have contributed to third-quarter revenues. Mattel's expanding entertainment-linked product portfolio, supported by Disney and Pixar's Toy Story 5, Masters of the Universe, WWE and its new DC partnership, is likely to have aided demand. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for gross billings for Action Figures, Building Sets, Games, and Other is pegged at $519 million, indicating an increase from $404 million reported in the prior-year quarter. The company's digital gaming business is likely to have supported third-quarter growth, benefiting from the full acquisition and consolidation of Mattel163. The business strengthens Mattel's presence in mobile gaming and extends the reach of popular franchises, particularly UNO.
Improving retailer ordering patterns and favorable consumer demand trends are likely to have aided Mattel's performance. Management indicated that U.S. retailer ordering patterns had largely stabilized following earlier disruptions, while point-of-sale trends remained positive entering the third quarter. The return to normal timing for fall retail resets in August, coupled with lower retailer inventories, is expected to have supported replenishment activity and shipments. Continued momentum across international markets, particularly Europe, the Middle East and Africa and Asia Pacific, is also likely to have supported the company's top line.
On the margin front, contributions from Mattel163, tariff-mitigation measures and savings under the Optimizing for Profitable Growth program are expected to have supported third-quarter profitability. Management remains on track to achieve cumulative savings of $225 million by the end of 2026 and anticipates sequential gross margin improvement in the second half. The company continues to target an adjusted gross margin of approximately 50% for the full year. However, elevated tariff costs, input inflation, higher royalties and unfavorable foreign exchange movements may have partly offset these benefits. Increased advertising and selling, general and administrative expenses, digital expansion, alongside higher interest expenses and lower interest income, are also likely to have pressured earnings.
What Our Model Unveils About MAT
Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mattel this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. That is not the case here.
Earnings ESP for MAT: Mattel has an Earnings ESP of -10.16%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Mattel’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Fox Corporation (FOX - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +9.09% and a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
For the to-be-reported quarter, FOX is expected to register a 28.1% increase in earnings. FOX reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 35.9%.
American Public Education, Inc. (APEI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.56% and a Zacks Rank of 2.
APEI’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decrease 13.3%. American Public Education reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 150.9%.
Planet Fitness, Inc. (PLNT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.53% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
PLNT’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to remain flat. Planet Fitness reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 9.3%.